European digital commerce to double by 2035 with AI and A2A growth
A new report predicts digital commerce in Europe will nearly double to €1.1 trillion by 2035, driven by AI agents and Account-to-Account payments.
🔹 Digital commerce to reach €1.1 trillion in key European markets by 2035
🔹 Account-to-Account (A2A) payments to claim 40% market share
🔹 AI agents to drive 17.5% of e-commerce transactions
A new report commissioned by Tietoevry Banking and authored by research firm Celent forecasts significant growth in European digital commerce, with transaction values expected to nearly double to €1.090 trillion by 2035 across Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and the UK. The study, titled "A Future of European Payments," highlights three key trends shaping the next decade:
Key Findings
1. Payment Rails Shift: Cards Lose Ground to A2A
- Card payments will grow but lose market share to A2A services, projected to rise from 24% in 2025 to 40% by 2035.
- Digital wallets will remain relevant but evolve beyond standalone payment methods.
- Digital assets (e.g., a potential digital Euro) will emerge but remain niche.
2. Pay Now/Pay Later Expansion
- Credit options for A2A transactions will grow to €35.7 billion (7% of pay-later value) by 2035.
- Banks and wallet providers are urged to innovate credit products for A2A and wallets.
3. AI Agents Transform Shopping
- AI-driven transactions will account for €191 billion (17.5% of e-commerce volume) by 2035.
- Sectors like travel, food/drink, and entertainment will see the most disruption.
Expert Insights
Natalija Dmitrijeva, Head of Instant, Retail Payments and Cards at Tietoevry Banking, emphasized:
"Banks must modernize payment systems for an instant A2A future and collaborate to break down silos. Success hinges on flexible strategies and partnerships."
Access the Report
Media Contacts:
- Tietoevry Newsdesk: news@tietoevry.com
- Celent PR: pr@celent.com
About the Organizations
- Celent: A global advisory firm specializing in financial technology. Learn more
- Tietoevry Banking: Nordic leader in financial SaaS solutions. Explore services
About the Author
Dr. Lisa Kim
AI Ethics Researcher
Leading expert in AI ethics and responsible AI development with 13 years of research experience. Former member of Microsoft AI Ethics Committee, now provides consulting for multiple international AI governance organizations. Regularly contributes AI ethics articles to top-tier journals like Nature and Science.